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Why the Next Generation of MMO’s Will Fail

It has already started and the trend is scary. Big titles launching big and falling hard. Examples include: Vanguard, Tabula Rasa, and Warhammer. Not to say all are shutting down like Tabula Rasa but they are surviving with low numbers. Today I am going to make a prediction which I hope to be wrong about. A prediction that scares me. The MMORPG genre is in a rut.

venice-plague_big1

It all started after the MMO boom. It was after EverQuest and a few other games finally got it right enough that the MMO genre was a boom.World of Warcraft came in with the right cards at the

I'z dead.

I'z dead. lol

right time and became a snow ball of success. Even EverQuest 2 did fairly well, as did a few other games that came out at that time. We as gamers settled into our new found genre and were loving it. We had our own gaming culture, and communities. This time period is more commonly referred to as the “Good ‘ol Times.” People were happy. We pressed through our beloved games, hit the cap, and raided our little hearts out. Then came the cataclysm (no not the new WoW expansion.) We got kind of bored of our MMO’s and went looking for something new. We found games that offered new things and followed them everyday to their launches. We took the day off, logged in the second the servers came up, grabbed our names, and played till we couldn’t play any more. After a few short weeks came the daunting realization that “I am not enjoying myself.” Now at this point many of us reacted differently. Some of us blamed it on the game. The features, the bugs, the game theory, something was wrong with the game. Soon we all realized that even though some of those things were true, the real reason was that we had changed. If these games came out before our MMO gaming experience had hit its peak we would have pooped our pizza stained pants. Some where between learning WASD keys and downing dragons we had lost something. What was it?

Blog posts over the next few years showed what gamers were wondering. “I can’t get into these other MMO’s”, “I returned to WoW”, “I cancelled my ___  account.” all topics of many blog and forums posts at that time. We were not pleased with these games and we didn’t really know why. Games launched, had huge spikes of subscribers, then plummeted to near death. Some were able to survive while others died painful and expensive deaths.  Countless games went through this painful process and years of development, hard work and most importantly cash were wasted. Now I predict this trend will continue for even longer and here is why. We as gamers are sick of progression. We are sick of quests, leveling our character, and grinding for gear. Only to have an expansion come out and do it all over again. Some of us are sick of being behind the progression line, while others are sick of playing solo. We are

Something New or something else?

Something New or something else?

sick of MMO’s and we don’t even know it. The only reason we are having fun in our current game is because of the completed progression we have already accomplished. We like looking at our character and all of our accomplishments. Doing them all over to arrive at that point again seems meaningless. So when the next game comes out, we might hop in and play, but we will quit soon after. This trend will continue. Continue killing games, good games. It might even bring the genre to its knees. However yet, there is hope! Once we all realize that we are sick of progression we will be able to find what we love. But what? What is the cure to our MMO woes? …….I don’t know. I haven’t a freaking clue. My best guess is a move to more of worlds like EVE where players interact in and with. Worlds that react to players and players create the content. Sandbox MMO’s with guides for having loads of fun. That is my best guess, but that medicine will need developed and tested. To the MMO industry I say this: The genre is up for grabs, realize this problem and find a cure and you shall make a butt-load (I’m talking tabloids “Women found eating entire village of obese people” butt-load of money.

So now I turn to you the reader. What do think? Am I right? What is the cure? Lets talk.

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This post was written by:

Lumio - who has written 103 posts on MMOcker.com.

"Site Admin, Comic Artist, and over all Nerd"

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  • trickey
    Lumio, Lumio, Lumio.... :P

    I agree to an extent but have to disagree that people are sick of MMO's. I, personally, had grown sick of single-player, MUDS and consoles, then I found MMO games. I was in heaven. The only caveat to this is that the first MMO (true MMO) that I found was Star Wars: Galaxies. The thing that drew me and kept in the game was the, virtually, unlimited combinations of professions that I could string together to make a completely unique character in my cyber-world. Only after the Combat Upgrades (x2) and the NGE (New Game Experience) did I loose steam for my game. After that I tried out other games, ranging from WoW to Tabula Rasa, City of Heroes to Vanguard and some others. I didn't find what I was looking for, and it took me a while to realize why.

    It was actually really simple. I wasn't playing out MY story. I was playing out a story that had already been set in motion FOR me. Not one of my own design on when/where I did something. It was all already laid out and planned for me. THAT was what I had lost when the game I loved so much was forced down the cookie-cutter path that most MMO's are following now.

    I would say that MMO's need to revert, only slightly, to a point of a true sandbox style. Allowing players to choose the set and makeup and to truly be their own character in a game.
  • Hey!!! Thanks for stopping by!

    I agree with everything you said, yet I don't see where you disagree with what I wrote. Mind expanding on that?
  • trickey
    I was mostly disagreeing with your point that people are sick of MMO's. It's not that people are sick of MMO's, per say, but that they are doing the same thing in, almost, every game. It's become too repetitive.
  • Ah I see, but thats exactly what I am saying. Current MMO's, people are sick of, there needs to be a change or the next generation of MMOs will fail. Thats the bottom line of the article.

    I'm with you, we need more SWG, more sandbox, more uniqueness, and less grind.
  • Longasc, you mention quest text. I am going to risk sounding like a complete tool, but all of you who are bored with current MMOs quest text (and quest content) must try Dungeons and Dragons Online, especially now that it's free.

    VERY well-crafted quest text. Rarely boring. Even the fetch quests are narrated nicely and you will usually find some beautiful atmosphere in the dungeon, even if they only sent you to kill a bunch of spiders. Often, such dungeons come with a twist as well.

    The quest text also often leads to unexpected dialog options, you can be really really mean to NPCs. It's so much fun that I wouldn't mind if the DDO quest designers wrote a text adventure. I'd play that :)
  • DDO is a pretty good game, just that instancing is what killed it for me. Has that changed at all?
  • P.S. I hope Curt Schilling's and 38 Studio's "Copernicus" is not just another game following a strong storytelling MMO system, like SWTOR supposedly is. Or a gear and achievement carrot progression system.

    Unfortunately they have revealed nothing what they are actually doing so far.
  • Ditto, lucky for them the havnt said much yet so they can change at any time. However, I am almost sure it will be a wow clone, a well done wow clone, but a clone non the less.
  • "Now I predict this trend will continue for even longer and here is why. We as gamers are sick of progression. We are sick of quests, leveling our character, and grinding for gear. Only to have an expansion come out and do it all over again."

    Well said! Especially if every new game is a slight variation of the common evolved DikuMUD setup from EverQuest/World of Warcraft. The system is not bad, but it is already old to those who played it for years.

    Quests once were supposed to tell engaging stories - they became a series of chained together kill 10 rats quests. Heck, even if a quest has a good story, it boils down to the stuff written in yellow that tells you what you are expected to do.
    Quests were there to lessen the grind of killing mobs over and over for the sake of progression, growing stronger.

    But this progression has to stop. Each expansion makes a virtual world smaller. Think of WoW. Deserted old endgame content dungeons en masse. Outland is in an even worse situation, it is now only the few levels you have to quickly do there to get to Northrend where you can do the next faction grind and daily quest grind you already had in TBC. WOTLK was exciting and the landscape amazing, but it bored me so quickly, this is really sad.

    Now Blizzard looks at horizontal progression, alternative progression schemes instead of adding more levels. They cannot create new content fast enough, not even Blizzard!

    So achievements come in - not so much different to quests. They are the cheapest content extenders one can imagine, but people love them. Initially - I personally think overdoing with achievements can destroy a game, as many achievements became pure grind exercises. The irony is that they are often not that optional, but waving with huge carrots as reward...

    Then designers decided that PvP is fun neverending endgame content. Not true, as no MMO player can pvp intensely and focused for hours. And yep, eternal killing can get boring, even to killer personality mmo gamers!


    The real issue is that players can only kill mobs and do quests in our modern wallpaper worlds. And maybe kill some players, which do not lose anything usually.

    We need "WORLDS" that allow TRADE, ITEM/PLAYER INTERACTION. Eve Online is very close to that, Ultima Online is quite different to it, but I see similarities:
    Items decay, the player economy is needed and meaningful. Stuff gets destroyed, used up, replaced -> the economy is needed. There are power caps - Ultima Online had a skill point cap, and it was up to you how to distribute the skill points. Eve has a power cap despite actually having none (sounds paradox), but ONE ubermega pimped player in a pimped ship is just risking a severe loss if he gets shot down and he is not as overpowered as a several levels higher other player who might even be the counter-class to your char's class.

    Then we have this vision of the all-encompassing triple AAA MMO: Fun forever for you, your mum, your grandma, the little kid over there and for all kinds of playstyles. To suck in everyone like WoW did - ok, but then you have to compete on WoW's turf, with all its strengths and weaknesses, but maybe without the gigantic budget of Blizzard.

    I think Champions Online is a great example for a MMO that has a certain target group and will do well for this particular group, at least for a while. Maybe it does not have new mechanics, but it has at least a new and very special flavor! We might see more MMOs of this kind, targeting specific audiences.

    I believe giving players more ways to interact with items, the world, other players, trading and having a working economy instead of giving them a linear and vertical progression system full of immortal chars with indestructible gear is what might save the genre for an audience of aging MMO gamers that knows the formula of the DikuMUD and the holy trinity by heart by now.

    Now that was a long sentence. I want to plant cannabis and sell it, tame wild horses and have my own house plus be part of a faction of my chosing. Give people a world they love to play and "live" in, and it will last longer and appeal more to them than a neverending item and level hunt in a wallpaper world that allows little interaction besides combat.
  • I think we are going see a some of these indie types try at it but I dont know if they will be able to accomplish it because they are just taking these Diku styles games and converting them into sandbox games
  • Some games are fun without progression. And I disagree with dereklicciardi, there are more hardcore and more niche games that are either more challenging due to their gameplay and the required skills (e.g. Guild Wars) or due to requiring more thorough planning and group/raid management (Shards of Dalaya).

    And there are niche games with pretty much DikuMUD-like roots, such as LOTRO and EQ2, that can still be satisfying for those sick of WoW. Longasc has been exploring the non-Dikulikes for a while. I think that's where the true innovation in the genre will be coming from.

    DDO is one as well, by the way, but for different reasons. I think we will see a renaissance of non-Diku-style games such as Ultima Online. Perhaps the next (level-less) Final Fantasy will help the concept gain popularity again, who knows. Darkfall did this as well. Another good niche example, too hardcore to be played by the masses. Chronicles of Spellborn, too strange to be played by the masses.

    All good games. WoW is simply very, very average, it has to please the average person, and you can't compete with it unless you throw the same amount of money at it. Those other games, they can get by with less subscribers and less investments, so they can actually exist.
  • Would you mind explaining the terms: Diku and Longasc?
  • Diku is DikuMUD, the style of MUD that almost all modern MMOs are a direct descendent of (WoW, EQ, EQ2, LOTRO).

    And Longasc is a blogger and twitterer who likes to make observations about the Diku-likes, and how they've flooded the market.

    Currently we're both feeling that we've seen enough of Diku-likes, and I think that's the MMO-fatigue you're feeling as well. Once we move away from the Diku design, many possibilities exist (UO-style skill based, which is also used in the new FF and in Dawntide, completely different play mechanics like in Spellborn (and to some degree in DDO)) etc.

    So there :) It's up to the industry to supply new play styles (and we'll pay for them), but I think this will happen in the niche and the mainstream will stay Diku-like.
  • aah I see, thanks so much for clearing that up. I would like to see more non diku games. I'm afraid your right though I think theres gunna be diku for a while. Until enough of them fail and another non diku does well
  • dereklicciardi
    This is pretty much the same assumption I use in the Ages of Athiria business plan. It's supported by Raph's Theory of Fun book as well. Eventually, you grok the pattern of checkers and start looking for something more challenging such as chess. In today's MMO landscape, there is no chess to WoW's checkers. Eve doesn't count for the masses of people that prefer sword and sorcery games and UO no longer counts because it is not a 3D game like the rest of the MMOs on the market.

    Our biggest problem has been finding funding. When you're asking for ~$20M, investors want a proven design and a solid track record. Innovative designs like Eve are not funded because they are not like WoW, that cash cow that is a license to print money. Also, the angel investor and venture capital investor markets are going through a huge shift in focus right now. The systems are horribly broken at this point where the returns from venture class assets are viewed as the saving grace of the failed bond class assets that many financial portfolios were holding. Both asset classes are woefully underperforming. The overall conservative attitude in VC/angel investing is killing innovation in all industries.

    Those two factors combined make your article a good cry for help but not much more. None of the upcoming MMOs bring anything significant to the table from an innovation standpoint and I think your statements in the article will prove true in 18 months with more recently released MMOs shut down. Add the run of failures to the list and realize that VC/angel investing isn't smart enough yet to realize the failures stem from the design behind the failed games and it paints an even bleaker position. All I can say is keep up the good fight. Eventually, one of these will self fund. Perhaps Curt Schilling's MMO will be the one. It's the only rogue MMO out there that is not known to be simply a WoW clone with different lipstick.
  • Thanks for the great reply,

    I see what you mean about investors, I think they are playing a big part in this. Its crazy because investors by definition are suppose to be the "high risk, high return" people, but I guess not.

    That's exactly what this article is, a cry for help. I don't know what the answer is, maybe your game will be it. All I know is that I am ready for something new and I don't want to see this genre go into the dark age.

    Great stuff, I have to say i'm really interested in your game now. Heh.
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